Investment Perspectives

Henny Penny and the Risk Amplifiers

Last Friday’s SARS-CoV-2 “variant of concern,” Omicron, rout sparked a lot of comparisons to March of 2020 over the weekend. It is difficult to predict the potential economic disruption given very little information on the variant (we know the variant has more mutations, critically in the spike protein that interacts with…

Bloomberg and Chief Market Strategist Cameron Dawson discuss the future of manufacturing and its impact on cost inflation in 2022

Chief Market Strategist, Cameron Dawson, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss the environment for cyclical manufacturing companies.  She discusses why some companies are able to pass on higher costs through pricing power and while others could struggle with cost inflation in 2022, like higher wage costs.  She discusses how slowing manufacturing…

Invisible Gorillas Part 2: The Non-Inflation Risk List

Last week we raised the question if we could all be focusing too much attention on inflation as a risk, potentially missing other risks and opportunities present in markets. We used the lessons from Chabris and Simons’ “invisible gorillas” experiment to illustrate this question.  Their experiment revealed the prevalence of inattentional…

Invisible Gorillas Part 1: Counting Passes with One More Week on Inflation

I am loath to spend yet another week writing about inflation out of concern we could be falling prey to an invisible gorilla problem. In a now well-known early 2000’s experiment, researchers Chabris and Simons had participants watch a video of people passing basketballs. Participants were asked to count how…

All That Glitters is Goldilocks? The Setup for 2022

Believe it or not, November 8, 2021, marks the 50th anniversary of Led Zeppelin IV (also known as “the fourth album,” Runes, Untitled, Four Symbols, and ZoSo). The album was powered by the resentment that the band had for music critics, who claimed that Led Zeppelin’s success was “driven by…

Not That 70’s Show

Stagflation is the market obsession du jour, with commentators and analysts fretting over the combination of high inflation and weak growth, making frequent comparisons to the 1970s.

And The Wind Cries Mary: The Perfect Storm for Commodities?

Today we released a new episode of our podcast, Fieldpoints of View, where I discuss the commodity landscape with Brad Klein and Bob Hyman of CoreCommodity Management. Brad and Bob are experts in the world of commodities, each with well over 30 years of experience in the asset class.