Given the surge in yields on this first trading day of the year, it may seem unnecessary and backward looking to talk about the drivers of lower yields way back in 2021. But an understanding of why we saw macro and markets seemingly diverge last year is important for setting…
Investors have a lot to learn from surfers. Surfers know that they cannot change the conditions presented to them. They have no sway over the tides, the winds, the weather and the season, which all can cause large variations in waves. Instead of fighting their environment, surfers change their approach…
Many are unaware that there are actually five Versailles Hall of Mirrors in the world. The first is outside of Paris at the Palace of Versailles, built by Louis XIV, the Sun King, to evoke his absolute power. The second is a half-finished replica of Versailles on an island in…
Last week we raised the question if we could all be focusing too much attention on inflation as a risk, potentially missing other risks and opportunities present in markets. We used the lessons from Chabris and Simons’ “invisible gorillas” experiment to illustrate this question. Their experiment revealed the prevalence of inattentional…
I am loath to spend yet another week writing about inflation out of concern we could be falling prey to an invisible gorilla problem. In a now well-known early 2000’s experiment, researchers Chabris and Simons had participants watch a video of people passing basketballs. Participants were asked to count how…
Believe it or not, November 8, 2021, marks the 50th anniversary of Led Zeppelin IV (also known as “the fourth album,” Runes, Untitled, Four Symbols, and ZoSo). The album was powered by the resentment that the band had for music critics, who claimed that Led Zeppelin’s success was “driven by…
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at a Bank of International Settlements conference. He said, “I do think it’s time to taper, I don’t think it’s time to raise rates.”
It is important to reiterate that even though today’s economic environment does not fit the definition of stagflation at this time, there are still market and growth risks associated with higher inflation.
After a dormant summer, we think investors could get another chance at cyclical outperformance. But buyer beware, this outperformance could be relatively short-lived as the economic and monetary policy cycle progresses. So as we often say with cyclical investing: we’re here for a good time, not a long time.
Changing your domicile to another state may cut your taxes, but the state you leave may not let it go so easily.
Living in a city like New York tends to force-feed you certain life lessons. Some are narrow, like 600 square feet is exceedingly spacious, while others are broad, like change is the only constant.
Jobs data was strong in July, showing continued healing in the U.S. labor market. Strong jobs data pushes the Fed to make a call on tapering, but it will likely try to hold off until the Fall when the backdrop is more “normal.”