Thinking Like a Surfer: Following the Liquidity Tide

Investors have a lot to learn from surfers. Surfers know that they cannot change the conditions presented to them. They have no sway over the tides, the winds, the weather and the season, which all can cause large variations in waves. Instead of fighting their environment, surfers change their approach…

The Hall of Mirrors: How Will Flat Yield Curves Impact Fed Policy?

Many are unaware that there are actually five Versailles Hall of Mirrors in the world. The first is outside of Paris at the Palace of Versailles, built by Louis XIV, the Sun King, to evoke his absolute power. The second is a half-finished replica of Versailles on an island in…

Invisible Gorillas Part 2: The Non-Inflation Risk List

Last week we raised the question if we could all be focusing too much attention on inflation as a risk, potentially missing other risks and opportunities present in markets. We used the lessons from Chabris and Simons’ “invisible gorillas” experiment to illustrate this question.  Their experiment revealed the prevalence of inattentional…

Invisible Gorillas Part 1: Counting Passes with One More Week on Inflation

I am loath to spend yet another week writing about inflation out of concern we could be falling prey to an invisible gorilla problem. In a now well-known early 2000’s experiment, researchers Chabris and Simons had participants watch a video of people passing basketballs. Participants were asked to count how…

All That Glitters is Goldilocks? The Setup for 2022

Believe it or not, November 8, 2021, marks the 50th anniversary of Led Zeppelin IV (also known as “the fourth album,” Runes, Untitled, Four Symbols, and ZoSo). The album was powered by the resentment that the band had for music critics, who claimed that Led Zeppelin’s success was “driven by…

Weekly Perspective: Learning to Live With It

Jobs data was strong in July, showing continued healing in the U.S. labor market. Strong jobs data pushes the Fed to make a call on tapering, but it will likely try to hold off until the Fall when the backdrop is more “normal.”


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