Investment Perspectives: Articles

In Focus: The U.S. Housing Market Outlook for 2022 – An Economic Cornerstone

The U.S. housing market is the cornerstone of economic growth and prosperity. With total housing spending contributing over 15% to annual GDP since the mid 1980’s (Chart 1), the market is a key contributor to economic output, household wealth, consumer spending, fixed investment, and employment. Reference note: “Residential fixed investment”…

Tax Alert: Here We Go Again?

As readers of these Tax Alerts are aware, many tax proposals and “scares” emanate from Washington which cause much consternation, sometimes prophylactic, proactive tax planning, and yet in the end do not come to fruition. The current poster child being last year’s tax law legislation that continues to flounder on…

Wobegon Contrarians: Markets Post Geopolitical Shocks

There is a simple and popular investment narrative that has emerged from the fog of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: geopolitical events are good buying opportunities for risk assets because the hit to sentiment is short-lived and the domestic (U.S.) economic impacts of these events have proven to be limited….

February Market Update: Geopolitical Events’ Effect on the Markets

February’s Market Update examines the impact Russia and Ukraine have on markets as several themes emerge: commodities soar, flight to safe haven assets, exacerbation of inflation and challenges to the monetary policy. The status and subsequent valuations of the current equity market sell off, along with the current outlook for…

Every Rose Has Its Thorn: The Good and the Bad of 4Q21 Earnings Season

There’s no better way to celebrate the Feast of Saint Valentine than with a good old fashioned glam power ballad (preferably if you’ve teased out your hair and have a stereo that goes up to 11).    There is ample wisdom and perspective in these soaring, heartfelt tracks, from White…

We’re Not In Oz Anymore: Three Points on the Road Forward

In one of the most iconic cinema transitions of all time, Dorothy emerges from the rubble of her cyclone-thrown Kansas house and steps into the lurid and lush landscape of Oz. The film dazzles viewers with the sharp contrast between Kansas, so austere and constrained, and Oz, so verdant and…

2022 Outlook: Normal but Not Boring

In this document you will find our 2022 outlook and a summary of our Key Expectations for this year. In a companion slide deck, we then present all of the charts and supporting data for our Key Expectations. Please enjoy both and have a great 2022! Normal but Not Boring 2021…

In Focus: The U.S. Consumer, 2022

As 2021 enters our rear view mirror and we look ahead to the open road of 2022, there are certainly many variables to consider. With consumer spending representing nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, it’s quite evident the sizeable role consumers play in defining the trajectory of the U.S. economy. In…

A New Act for the Economy and Market

Last week’s sharp market actions of raising rates and stock rotations sent a signal that we are in a “new act” for both the economy and market. If you indulge a former bunhead for a moment, this is what I mean: Most classical ballets start with a similar structure. The…

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