In this document you will find our 2022 outlook and a summary of our Key Expectations for this year. In a companion slide deck, we then present all of the charts and supporting data for our Key Expectations. Please enjoy both and have a great 2022! Normal but Not Boring 2021…
As 2021 enters our rear view mirror and we look ahead to the open road of 2022, there are certainly many variables to consider. With consumer spending representing nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, it’s quite evident the sizeable role consumers play in defining the trajectory of the U.S. economy. In…
Last week’s sharp market actions of raising rates and stock rotations sent a signal that we are in a “new act” for both the economy and market. If you indulge a former bunhead for a moment, this is what I mean: Most classical ballets start with a similar structure. The…
Given the surge in yields on this first trading day of the year, it may seem unnecessary and backward looking to talk about the drivers of lower yields way back in 2021. But an understanding of why we saw macro and markets seemingly diverge last year is important for setting…
Investors have a lot to learn from surfers. Surfers know that they cannot change the conditions presented to them. They have no sway over the tides, the winds, the weather and the season, which all can cause large variations in waves. Instead of fighting their environment, surfers change their approach…
Many are unaware that there are actually five Versailles Hall of Mirrors in the world. The first is outside of Paris at the Palace of Versailles, built by Louis XIV, the Sun King, to evoke his absolute power. The second is a half-finished replica of Versailles on an island in…
Last Friday’s SARS-CoV-2 “variant of concern,” Omicron, rout sparked a lot of comparisons to March of 2020 over the weekend. It is difficult to predict the potential economic disruption given very little information on the variant (we know the variant has more mutations, critically in the spike protein that interacts with…
Last week we raised the question if we could all be focusing too much attention on inflation as a risk, potentially missing other risks and opportunities present in markets. We used the lessons from Chabris and Simons’ “invisible gorillas” experiment to illustrate this question. Their experiment revealed the prevalence of inattentional…
I am loath to spend yet another week writing about inflation out of concern we could be falling prey to an invisible gorilla problem. In a now well-known early 2000’s experiment, researchers Chabris and Simons had participants watch a video of people passing basketballs. Participants were asked to count how…
Believe it or not, November 8, 2021, marks the 50th anniversary of Led Zeppelin IV (also known as “the fourth album,” Runes, Untitled, Four Symbols, and ZoSo). The album was powered by the resentment that the band had for music critics, who claimed that Led Zeppelin’s success was “driven by…
While big foundations often make headlines, in aggregate, individuals play the dominant role in philanthropy through both monetary gifts as well as their volunteerism. Here we discuss the state of philanthropy in America, and key trends empowering the individual.
Money is getting more expensive around the world. At least in the short term. Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen an incredible surge in 2-year government bond yields across major economies (see chart page at the end of the update).