Investment Perspectives: Articles

2022 Outlook: Normal but Not Boring

In this document you will find our 2022 outlook and a summary of our Key Expectations for this year. In a companion slide deck, we then present all of the charts and supporting data for our Key Expectations. Please enjoy both and have a great 2022! Normal but Not Boring 2021…

In Focus: The U.S. Consumer, 2022

As 2021 enters our rear view mirror and we look ahead to the open road of 2022, there are certainly many variables to consider. With consumer spending representing nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, it’s quite evident the sizeable role consumers play in defining the trajectory of the U.S. economy. In…

A New Act for the Economy and Market

Last week’s sharp market actions of raising rates and stock rotations sent a signal that we are in a “new act” for both the economy and market. If you indulge a former bunhead for a moment, this is what I mean: Most classical ballets start with a similar structure. The…

Thinking Like a Surfer: Following the Liquidity Tide

Investors have a lot to learn from surfers. Surfers know that they cannot change the conditions presented to them. They have no sway over the tides, the winds, the weather and the season, which all can cause large variations in waves. Instead of fighting their environment, surfers change their approach…

The Hall of Mirrors: How Will Flat Yield Curves Impact Fed Policy?

Many are unaware that there are actually five Versailles Hall of Mirrors in the world. The first is outside of Paris at the Palace of Versailles, built by Louis XIV, the Sun King, to evoke his absolute power. The second is a half-finished replica of Versailles on an island in…

Henny Penny and the Risk Amplifiers

Last Friday’s SARS-CoV-2 “variant of concern,” Omicron, rout sparked a lot of comparisons to March of 2020 over the weekend. It is difficult to predict the potential economic disruption given very little information on the variant (we know the variant has more mutations, critically in the spike protein that interacts with…

Invisible Gorillas Part 2: The Non-Inflation Risk List

Last week we raised the question if we could all be focusing too much attention on inflation as a risk, potentially missing other risks and opportunities present in markets. We used the lessons from Chabris and Simons’ “invisible gorillas” experiment to illustrate this question.  Their experiment revealed the prevalence of inattentional…

Invisible Gorillas Part 1: Counting Passes with One More Week on Inflation

I am loath to spend yet another week writing about inflation out of concern we could be falling prey to an invisible gorilla problem. In a now well-known early 2000’s experiment, researchers Chabris and Simons had participants watch a video of people passing basketballs. Participants were asked to count how…

All That Glitters is Goldilocks? The Setup for 2022

Believe it or not, November 8, 2021, marks the 50th anniversary of Led Zeppelin IV (also known as “the fourth album,” Runes, Untitled, Four Symbols, and ZoSo). The album was powered by the resentment that the band had for music critics, who claimed that Led Zeppelin’s success was “driven by…

White Paper: Painting a Picture of Philanthropy

While big foundations often make headlines, in aggregate, individuals play the dominant role in philanthropy through both monetary gifts as well as their volunteerism. Here we discuss the state of philanthropy in America, and key trends empowering the individual.